Analysis on the Anambra Primaries

Premises:
As the Anambra Governorship election is the first significant election before 2011 elections. It provides the litmus test for Nigerian democracy in 2011. It tests the change in disposition towards free and fair election on the part of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). It also tests the lessons learned by the Nigerian political leadership on how to deal with the logistic nightmares of running elections. It also tests whether there is any emerging culture of political organization and internal democratization in the parties.

As a emerging political movement soon to become a political party, Anambra poses important lessons and our strategic response to the unfolding saga of Anambra midterm election may determine to a reasonable extent our success with 2011 project. At the last technical team strategy meeting it was generally agreed that the 3G monitors the Anambra midterm election and integrates its lessons with those of Ekiti in fashioning a strategic plan for mandate protection in 2011 Since most of the political proponents of this movement are notable members of the PDP a clear reading of the conflict in Anambra politics is hugely sensible in guiding on the likely way some of the options of the group will unfold. For example, the group watches very closely whether PDP will implode as a result of its many contradictions and yield way to a new political group like the 3G. Anambra could offer some sobering lessons on this proposition and may be bring some realism on our considerable about moving forward.

Background Update on the Anambra Saga:
Since 1999 Anambra has remained the sorest thumb in Nigerian politics. It was in that state that we first experienced the objectionable phenomenon of a sitting governor being hijacked by a godfather and forced to ‘resign’ from office. It was on account of Anambra politics that President Obasanjo sacked Audu Ogbe from the Chairmanship of the party. Audu Ogbe had protested the brigandage in Anambra against an elected Governor to President Obasanjo and urged him to take action to restrain Chief Chris Uba. Ogbe wrote as follows:
“I am afraid we are drifting in the same direction again. In life, perception is reality and today we are perceived in the worst light by an angry Nigerian public for reasons which are absolutely unnecessary…. I call on you to act now and bring any, and all criminals, even treasonable, activity to a halt”

What we learn from Anambra:
PDP is self contradictory:
The first strategic issue in the primaries is how the PDP will manage its huge political contradictions to select a candidate for the election. It should be noted that since 1999 the PDP has not elected a candidate for a major election through free and fair polling.

These contradictions are too much and could predictably tear the party apart. But the strange thing is that these various groups with their maximalist and contradictory demands continued to fight within the party instead of exploring the possibility of breaking away from the party. It is also interesting that in spite of the noted failure of the PDP to resolve these crises in any fair and transparent manner that these groups continued to make their claims for justice inside the party. There are storms within the party but there is little prospect of a mass exodus yet. The party seems to be exhaling, rather furiously and turbulently, but not yet imploding

INEC Ready for another woeful Performance:
Considering the Shenanigans on who leads APGA and the fate of Governor Obi it looks like INEC has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing. INEC refused to accept the authentic leadership of Chief Umeh because it is acting the script of Andy Uba to stop Obi from running for Governorship. But when it realized that there was little chance for its client Andy Uba to emerge it allowed stepped back and pretended to be obeying the law by instructing Chekwas Okorie group to hand over the election forms to Chief Ojukwu and Governor Obi. INEC is ready to collude with the ruling party to rig the next election.

No Democratic Culture:
One issue coming out of the primaries in Anambra is that a culture of internal democracy is yet to emerge in the political parties. It is expected that in the light of the much discussed failure of the political parties to conduct good primaries where party members voted and the impact of this failure to the outcome of the 2007 elections, the parties will be concerned to have free and fair primaries.

Call us 9AM - 5PM CAT Monday - Friday +234709 880 2891, +234709 880 2892 Email- info@3gnigeria.org : You may also visit our office at plot 1213 Birao Street, Wuse II, Abuja to register. Our offices will soon open nationwide to enable more Nigerians become part of this movement.

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