Analysis of the Senate Hearing on Electoral Reform

Preamble:
As part of its process of reviewing the constitution towards the 2011 elections, the special Senate Committee on the Review of the Constitution held three days public hearing on the electoral reform and the land use decree. The hearing was attended by many prominent politicians and political groups.
The Senate President and his deputy expressed the purpose of the hearing as getting the views of Nigerians into the proposal for amending the constitution and creating a better electoral system for Nigeria. They tried to dispel the fear that the National Assembly will not succeed in reviewing the constitution and reforming the electoral process before 2011.

Lessons from the Hearing:
Based on our observations of the proceedings during the entire 3 day hearing, 3G believes that nothing substantial will come out of the reform process: the first lesson of the hearing is that we should look beyond the electoral reform process going on in the National Assembly for any hope of serious change in 2011.
There is no incentive in the legislature to go the whole hog as regards the key issues that will constitute a real watershed in the electoral system. From the statements of Iwu and the questions posed by the Senators it seems like there is little chance of any change in the mode of appointment of the INEC chairman.

The NASS does not seem to have bought into the importance of striping Mr. President of that power. Comments of many Senators and their body language suggest that they will go with the status. It is true that the NBA has tried to clarify the issue and debunk the assumption that the judiciary would necessarily get involved, and proposed to the NASS that the National Judicial Council (NJC) may just screen and recommend candidates and Mr. President appoints. But it is doubtful if this late rally will change the course of events.

The Senators are not showing strong support for independent candidates. Iwu spoke passionately against and we believe that the argument about logistics will heavily influence them. Many of them believe that they have fortified their control of their party and will not like a situation which independent candidacy will foist where a strong person in their zone can challenge them outside the party. The incentive structure and the lack of public spirit amongst the legislators mean that they may not rise up to the patriotism which can procure a radical electoral reform.
Another lesson is that the opposition does not have a good and winnable strategy to engage with electoral reform. They are yet to properly define the incentives working in the NASS and project how these affect the outcomes of the process. It seems the opposition is still naïve and expects some miracle from the NASS. It should refocus attention on mandate protection and build a strong political alliance of all political parties to demand far reaching administrative reform of INEC which would not require any legislative reform.

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